"iPhone Black" on AT&T's phone selection page

There have been a lot of claims about the seemingly imminent 3G iPhone. One of them is that the aluminum backing will be replaced by high-quality, glossy-black plastic. Well, AT&T may have inadvertently let the cat out of the bag on that particular rumor.

It seems that a drop-down on the AT&T site for selecting phone model listed iPhone and iPhone Black as multiple options. When this tidbit hit the blogosphere, they were quick to reply, stating that it was simply a “temporary placeholder” to differentiate between the 8GB and 16GB models that hadn’t been properly re-assigned. The fact that screencaps do not show any other visible options or choosing between the two models seems to reinforce their story, though this is for selecting what phone is on your account, not ordering so the capacity may not matter. There’s also the fact that the 16GB has been available for months, which seems to indicate that the codename “iPhone Black” would have to have been “re-assigned“ in the system well before now.

If AT&T’s recent slip-ups regarding free Wi-Fi for iPhones tells us anything about how good they are at keeping a secret, it’s that we wouldn’t recommend telling anyone over there who you have a crush on. Oh, and that there’s probably going to be a black iPhone soon.

Why an iPhone shortage is good news for Cupertino

Conventional wisdom would tell us that a company new to a particular market (cell phones, for example) would endanger the growth of its market share if it were to sell out of the product it manufactures for that market. So why is Apple smiling?

Apple has a well-earned reputation for completely disregarding conventional wisdom and this iPhone sell-out may be a smart (and intentional) move that continues that tradition. Why would Apple want to sell out of a product that’s selling like hot-cakes? It’s simple, really.

For most manufacturers, in most markets, if their product is not available for customers to buy when they want it, they’ll just buy a similar product instead. But none of those products are the iPhone. Apple knows that the majority of people going to plunk down $400-$500 on an iPhone aren’t going to be deterred by the sold-out status to the point that they go buy a blackberry instead. Instead, they’ll wait. Apple isn’t losing iPhone sales; they’re deferring iPhone sales. And, in all likelihood, saving a lot of money doing so.

We all know there’s a new iPhone coming out, with long-awaited 3G, 3rd-party applications and enterprise support, plus many other features that have been the subjects of hot speculation. Apple is much better off not selling iPhones at all in the lead-up to that launch, especially in the two weeks immediately preceding. After all, they have a 14 day return policy. It’s safe to say that 90% of buyers in the two weeks prior to the 3G iPhone launch would be returning those units for exchange, costing Apple thousands of work-hours processing exchanges and leaving them with a giant pile of expensive iPhones that no one wants and losing the manufacturing costs for all of them.

Selling out, however, not only avoids that problem but has some other benefits as well. It causes that elusive thing called “buzz.” Apple knows that the iPhone suddenly becoming unavailable creates news stories. News stories that imply to the people who haven’t yet chosen the iPhone that they’re obviously missing out on something -- how often do you hear of a cellphone selling out? And, just in case they hadn’t heard, those news stories speculate that the shortage may be due to an upcoming 3G version, saving Apple millions in advertising costs.

That is why Apple is smiling.